Autocratization and Subjective Well-Being: Is There a Macro-Level Effect?

Abstract

Much scholarly attention has recently been devoted to (democratic) backsliding and its consequences. We contribute to this growing literature by examining the relationship between backsliding in any regime (“autocratization”) and subjective well-being, broadening the discussion of this phenomenon to include its potential psychological repercussions. We highlight several theoretical mechanisms through which autocratization may be linked to subjective well-being. We estimate a series of mixed-effects models to assess whether negative changes in democracy levels are associated with variation in life satisfaction at the macro level across 165 countries between 2005 and 2023, using eight democracy measures and aggregate survey data on life satisfaction. We find no clear or statistically significant overall relationship between autocratization and subjective well-being. Upon splitting the sample by initial levels of democracy, however, we find more consistent evidence of a negative relationship between autocratization and subjective well-being when more established democracies become less democratic (4 out of 8 indicators), as opposed to mixed regimes and autocracies becoming more autocratic. These results suggest that the consequences of democratic erosion depend importantly on institutional context and on citizens’ expectations and experiences of democratic governance, and that decline in different dimensions of democracy may not be equally consequential for subjective well-being.